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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Georgia & Russia, and nobody has started a thread here about this important issue.

My thoughts of Russia is that it is going to take back all of the countries it controled as the ussr because nobody is going to stop them and they know that. It is also a sign that Bush is weak by his continueing to do nothing, since hot air is nothing. If Russia was doing its words it couldn't be in Georgia.

What are the thoughts of others here about why Russia is really in Georgia?

Karl, do you still believe Russia is responsible and should have a big military?
 

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Georgia & Russia, and nobody has started a thread here about this important issue.

My thoughts of Russia is that it is going to take back all of the countries it controled as the ussr because nobody is going to stop them and they know that. It is also a sign that Bush is weak by his continueing to do nothing, since hot air is nothing. If Russia was doing its words it couldn't be in Georgia.

What are the thoughts of others here about why Russia is really in Georgia?

Karl, do you still believe Russia is responsible and should have a big military?
It's oil. The BTC pipeline is a challenge to Russia's lock on central Asian oil. That's what to watch. As has been amply demonstrated, the governments of the West will not risk much just for the sake of the Georgian people.

I'll bet the Ukrainians are wondering if they should have given up their nukes post-breakup.

The other narratives are that the EU fomented this with the Kosovo precedent. Also that NATO expansion was the threat. There may be some validity to those, but it's really a zero-sum-game of global power.

You have to remember what Putin said when Bush made some comments about Putin shutting down a newspaper or maybe jailing a tv reporter. He said that Bush had had Dan Rather taken off the air, this is the same thing. Putin really believed that. This is a man without the mental infrastructure to conceive of a free society. As McCain said, "When I look into his eyes, I see K. G. B."
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
It's oil. The BTC pipeline is a challenge to Russia's lock on central Asian oil. That's what to watch. As has been amply demonstrated, the governments of the West will not risk much just for the sake of the Georgian people.

I'll bet the Ukrainians are wondering if they should have given up their nukes post-breakup.

The other narratives are that the EU fomented this with the Kosovo precedent. Also that NATO expansion was the threat. There may be some validity to those, but it's really a zero-sum-game of global power.

You have to remember what Putin said when Bush made some comments about Putin shutting down a newspaper or maybe jailing a tv reporter. He said that Bush had had Dan Rather taken off the air, this is the same thing. Putin really believed that. This is a man without the mental infrastructure to conceive of a free society. As McCain said, "When I look into his eyes, I see K. G. B."
As McCain said, "When I look into his eyes, I see K. G. B." McCain should have added greed in his eyes, too. I think it is Putin and his greed, and greed would include oil. His wacky rational about Bush and Rather is a poor lie. I don't think Putin is a very good liar. At least he can't use "US is in Iraq stealing oil".

Anyway, however you look at this mess he is making the world is going down hill. History repeats itself and the 'better powers that be' are doing nothing and Putin knows that, which is a green light to him from them to do more evil. Look at Hitler and what 'better powers that be' did. The reward was millions dead in war that should have been stopped at the beginning. It is better to confront this at the beginning than much larger tragedy later. I think without a doubt that if Western Europen nations and other careing nations pulled into Georgia with tanks and war jet and started fighting for Georgia that Putin would pull out and that would be the end of Putins plans to take more and more and more. Putins plans are more than Georgia and oil is only part of the excuse for being there. If there is a time for Western Europe to pull together powerfully it is now instead of being a bunch of pansies.
 

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It looks like the president of Georgia started this whole mess by going after pro-Russian territory, and the Russians used the excuse to lay the smack down. There's a lot of blame to go around...

Russia wants control of the pipeline, the EU needs Russian natural gas...is NATO even applicable in this situation considering it now has some two dozen+ members?

-spence
 

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Spence has nailed it exactly. The only think I might add is that western nations may have put the Georgians up to this stunt. With oil and natural gas involved it is highly likely Bush had a few words of support for Georgia's posturing.
 

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.............and besides, who are we to talk, when we invaded a sovereign country under the flimsiest of excuses.
 

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A couple of things to keep in mind...

1. The area of South Ossetia, pro-Russian feelings notwithstanding, is officially part of the Republic of Georgia and is entirely within the internationally recognized border of Georgia. The "stunt" is actually a Georgian "invasion" of their own territory.

2. The BTC oil pipeline (and a parallel gas pipeline) runs fairly near to the undefined 'border' of the breakaway South Ossetia region. Russia definitely is still pi**ed about losing Georgia, et al, and would love to get South Ossetia back (if not all of Georgia) and possibly extend that to the area through which the BTC runs. The US and Europe certainly have a vested interest in keeping any part of this pipeline out of Russian control. The very reason it was built was to bypass Russia for oil transport of out of the Caspian Sea region. The Clinton administration pushed very hard for the BTC as a critical part of their energy/security strategy.

3. Even if the US was not currently involved in any war we still would not now (or anytime in the near future) be sending troops to the Republic of Georgia.
 

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With oil and natural gas involved it is highly likely Bush had a few words of support for Georgia's posturing.
I believe we've been supporing Georgia with military training etc... as they've been a supporter of our actions in Iraq. That's not to say that we endorsed this event.

The NYTimes had some good bits on this today. Clearly the media has been anti-Russia, although they certainly have played this to their advantage.

-spence
 

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I have to admit that I'm a little perplexed at the pro-Russian attitude so many on the left here in America are taking. Is it just an anti-Bush thing, or do you guys secretly hope that once the old Russian empire is back together it'll go commie again?
 

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Yeah, I had a dream about the Russian/Georgian conflict last night. This whole situation w/ Russia is very weird, don't they think there will be any reprucutions? Who's really in control if they're signing ceasefires and not following them? Strange, strange, strange...

Brian
 

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Let's have an intermission for a moment so I can feed the paranoia. This could be played into a major war so Bush could declare us to be in extreme peril, suspend the constitution, remain in power for life or until the emergency is over and we all live in a police state for perpetuity. On the other hand I have always wondered what a vacation on the Black Sea would be like.
Is this something that gives you comfort PT?

OK now back to rational discourse.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
It looks like the president of Georgia started this whole mess by going after pro-Russian territory, and the Russians used the excuse to lay the smack down. There's a lot of blame to go around...

Russia wants control of the pipeline, the EU needs Russian natural gas...is NATO even applicable in this situation considering it now has some two dozen+ members?

-spence
So, the pro-Russian territory of Georgia wants to depart Georgia like the Confederates wanted to leave the US- still gives Russia no right to be in Georgia.

I think the greed of Putin will still give the EU natural gas, though he will throw a fit. The EU needs to stand up and be counted.
 

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Much of the old USSR's expansion and repression was based on a deep-seated paranoia of invasion. The situation has reversed today- what you basically have is a resurgent superpower experiencing levels of prosperity it hasn't had in years and feeling its oats. I think both Putin and a large number of Russians look at the US and think "who needs 'em?"

Unlike a lot of people, the prospect of a McCain presidency does not make me feel at ease. Strident rhetoric may make for good sound bites, but everybody seems to have forgotten that both our countries have literally thousands of nuclear weapons pointed at one another. That's really enough to end all life as we know it on this planet. Reagan stood firm against Russia, but the man also had a healthy fear of Armageddon. Somehow, McCain just doesn't inspire the same level of confidence in me. This is a situation that calls for both resolve and tact.
 

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Yeah, I had a dream about the Russian/Georgian conflict last night. This whole situation w/ Russia is very weird, don't they think there will be any reprucutions? Who's really in control if they're signing ceasefires and not following them? Strange, strange, strange...

Brian
Not so strange really...I'm having flashbacks to the mid to late 1970s; sitting in a subterranean bunker, waiting for the go to war order to be broadcast over the primary alerting system...and praying it would never come. Back then we called the strategy MAD...strangely appropriate, I think! :(
 

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Gentlemen, what is good for the goose is good for the gander.

My guess is that Putin is trying to create a power balance (after all, the economy of Russia is flourishing well thanks to the oil prices) so instead of the solitary super power that we've been since the end of the cold war, why not have 2 or more (since the EU is a sort of aspiring "super power" consortium to check America)? :icon_smile:
 

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A very respectable effort by Mr. Freidman. Exceeding my expectations in point of fact. Speaking of which:

Saakashvili has been tactically stupid. I think that has to be conceded in an honest accounting. From the reports, the damage to civilian facilities from the Georgian suppression of the Russian-sponsored provocations by pet militias was excessive and offensive to norms of civilized conduct (if there is such a thing in war). However, their strategic and moral position remains unassailable. Georgia is a sovereign nation. Within undisputedly recognized international borders both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia. Which makes Russia's actions against the UN Charter.

I hope I understand correctly: which is that the sincere desire of the OECD nations and the US is to preserve the right of self-determination for all peoples. However, such principles positions may fall prey to realpolitick considerations of energy policy. In my humble opinion, that would be a moral travesty and a shame on Western civilization.
 
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